CARE Ratings, in a report, said it foresees an increase in the retail prices of petrol and diesel in the coming few days, depending on how the oil markets react in the reduction in supply from the cartel.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the government is keeping an eye on inflation which is purely "extraneous" nowadays because of fuel and fertiliser prices. Replying to the debat on the Supplementary Demands for Grants in the Rajya Sabha, the minister said wholesale inflation has fallen to a 21-month low. Later, the Rajya Sabha returned the Supplementary Demands for Grants to the Lok Sabha, thus completing the process of authorising the government to spend an additional Rs 3.25 lakh crore in FY2022-23.
It is for the second consecutive month that the retail inflation has been above the RBI's comfort level.
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
By taking the mutual fund route, investors can take exposure to gilts with small amounts. Over a decade or more, returns from these funds tend to be sound.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a 29-month low of 1.34 per cent in March on easing prices of manufactured products and fuel items, even though food articles turned expensive.
Central and state government employees would be entitled to five per cent additional dearness allowance of basic pay and 50 per cent DA from July 1, 2006 following proportionate increase in price index since January this year.
However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to an eight-month high of 1.48 per cent in October, as manufactured products turned costlier. The WPI inflation was 1.32 per cent in September and zero per cent in October last year. This is the highest level of wholesale price index-based (WPI) inflation since February when it was 2.26 per cent.
Snapping its declining trend, retail inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.55 per cent in November on firming food prices, including vegetables and cereals, though it remains within the RBI's comfort zone of less than 6 per cent. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 4.87 per cent in October and 5.88 per cent in November 2022, the government data released on Tuesday showed. The previous high was 6.83 per cent in August and inflation had been on a decline since then.
'Spending by the middle class is limited with a focus on savings. However, there is buoyancy at the top-end.'
India's services sector activity fell to a 10-month low in September as new businesses, international sales and output growth moderated, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index fell from 60.9 in August to 57.7 in September, indicating that though the output registered an increase, the pace of growth was the slowest since November 2023. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Former finance minister P Chidambaram on Friday rejected Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's contention in Lok Sabha that UPA government left behind double digit inflation.
Prices have continued to move up in Delhi's markets, wholesale and retail, on supply worries and spoilage due to record cold weather.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
Moody's Investors Service has warned that India, along with the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are highly vulnerable to volatile food and energy prices in the Asia-Pacific region as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt supplies and raise the cost of agricultural products, especially cereals and vegetable oils, as well as fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. This is so because these countries have a higher weighting of energy and food prices in their consumer price index (CPI) baskets, Moody's said in its report released on Tuesday. The weighting of energy and food in overall Indian CPI stands at over 55 per cent.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
Prospects of China hiking interest rates increased as inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in May, surpassing the government target of 3 per cent.
Retail inflation declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to softening prices of food items, according to official data released on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021.
Experts believe equities and debt will continue to do well.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
India's services PMI recovered from its ten-month low in September to reach 58.5 in October supported by strong expansions in output and new business, which in turn boosted job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index increased from 57.7 in September to 58.5 in October, as robust sales pipelines and strong demand conditions supported the upturn in business activity. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'While intensification of fuel prices and broad-based domestic cost pass-through pressures is a downside risk, core inflation is expected to strengthen further as demand recovers to pre-Covid levels,' the ministry said on Friday.
Subdued prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation for the third month in a row to 5.3 per cent in August, within the RBI's comfort zone. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation declined to 5.3 per cent in August from 6.69 per cent in the same month a year ago, food inflation dipped at a much faster pace to 3.11 per cent from 9.05 per cent in August 2020. The food inflation was also lower than 3.96 per cent in preceding month of July.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to 2.03 per cent in January, 2021, even as food prices cooled. The WPI inflation was 1.22 per cent in December, 2020 and 3.52 per cent in January last year. While food articles saw softening in inflation in January, manufactured items witnessed hardening of prices, as per data released by the Commerce and Industry ministry.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The rate of price rise has been on a decline for the past four months.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said India has ramped up the import of crude oil from Russia at discounted prices amid sanctions on Moscow as part of the country's inflation management. "In a situation where global prices were going beyond anyone's affordability, at that stage to take a very strong political decision, I respect the prime minister for his courage on this to get it from Russia because they are ready to give it to you at discount. And how speedily did we manage to do it," she said. India ramped up its import from Russia from about 2 per cent of the total shipment of petroleum products to 12-13 per cent in a couple of months as part of inflation management, she said at a seminar organised by economic think-tank Icrier.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
The wholesale price-based inflation shot up to an all-time high of 10.49 per cent in April, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured items. Also, a low base of April last year contributed to the spike in inflation in April 2021. The WPI inflation was 7.39 per cent in March 2021, and (-) 1.57 per cent in April 2020. This is the fourth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation.
From the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Titan, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever and JSW Steel were the biggest laggards.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the decision to tweak policy rates was not in his hand as he himself is driven by the situation on the ground. In April, the Reserve Bank in a surprise move hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent. Prior to it, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was on a rate hiking spree, raising the repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022.
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Food prices for consumers also eased to an annual 11.06 percent in August from 11.24 per cent in July.
"We have to stand in readiness to go beyond keeping Arjuna's eye to deploying policy instruments, if necessary" to contain inflation, said Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday. Headline consumer price index-based inflation projection for the second quarter of 2023-24 has been revised up substantially, primarily due to the price shock from vegetables, at 6.2 per cent by the RBI form 5.2 per cent estimated in June. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, Governor Das said the moderation in headline inflation to 4.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2023-24 was in line with the projections set out in the June MPC meeting.
Benchmark 10-year bond yields hit a 13-month peak as bond traders priced in more aggressive monetary easing next year.
Power Grid, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti and Nestle were among the laggards. Shares of HCL Technologies were trading over 1 per cent lower even after the company reported a 7.6 per cent year-on-year rise in June quarter net profit on the back of new order wins.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
According to the global financial services major, the Consumer Price Index based inflation is peaking off and is expected to be around 7.5-8 per cent in September.
The government's step could push investors to choose riskier equity, or to fall back on bank deposits, thereby negatively impacting the debt market which actually needs to grow, points out T N Ninan.
The Boston Analytics Consumer Sentiment Index for August fell below the benchmark value of 100 since its inception, signalling a low-key festive season ahead.
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