Consider a combination of a base policy and a super top-up policy.
A careful reading of the national income accounts suggests that after a strong recovery from the pandemic, there has been a significant ebbing of dynamism over the last three quarters to more modest levels recently, note Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman.
Experts believe equities and debt will continue to do well.
Prospects of China hiking interest rates increased as inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in May, surpassing the government target of 3 per cent.
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to 2.03 per cent in January, 2021, even as food prices cooled. The WPI inflation was 1.22 per cent in December, 2020 and 3.52 per cent in January last year. While food articles saw softening in inflation in January, manufactured items witnessed hardening of prices, as per data released by the Commerce and Industry ministry.
The government's step could push investors to choose riskier equity, or to fall back on bank deposits, thereby negatively impacting the debt market which actually needs to grow, points out T N Ninan.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
The wholesale price-based inflation shot up to an all-time high of 10.49 per cent in April, on rising prices of crude oil and manufactured items. Also, a low base of April last year contributed to the spike in inflation in April 2021. The WPI inflation was 7.39 per cent in March 2021, and (-) 1.57 per cent in April 2020. This is the fourth straight month of uptick seen in the wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation.
The rate of price rise has been on a decline for the past four months.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
Citing the sharp rise in food prices, economists at a foreign bank have forecast a steeply higher retail inflation print for July, pegging it at 6.7 per cent, up 190 basis points from the previous month. Deutsche Bank India economists led by chief economist Kaushik Das, in a report on Monday ahead of the monthly inflation print and the Reserve Bank's monetary policy review, said that the July consumer price-based inflation index (CPI) is likely to print at 6.7 per cent on-year as against 4.8 per cent in June. The Reserve Bank is widely believed to leave the key interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in its upcoming bi-monthly monetary policy decision on August 10.
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
.jpg)
Food prices for consumers also eased to an annual 11.06 percent in August from 11.24 per cent in July.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the country's economic growth remains a priority for the government, as inflation has come down to a manageable level. Job creation and equitable distribution of wealth remain the other focus areas, she said at India Ideas Summit. "Some of course are red-lettered (priorities), some may not be. Red-lettered ones would of course be jobs, equitable wealth distribution and making sure India is moving on the path of growth.
Benchmark 10-year bond yields hit a 13-month peak as bond traders priced in more aggressive monetary easing next year.
Notwithstanding the fact that the country's pharmaceutical (pharma) pricing regulator has allowed a 12 per cent price increase for medicines listed under the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) in 2023, analysts and industry insiders predict that the overall domestic pharma industry will only witness a price hike of 5-6 per cent. This is attributed to higher competitive intensity in the market. Krishnakumar V, executive director and chief operating officer (CEO) of Eris Lifesciences, a domestic-focused pharma company, noted that the NLEM segment experienced growth suppression of around 150 basis points due to price reductions during the January to July period this year.
According to the global financial services major, the Consumer Price Index based inflation is peaking off and is expected to be around 7.5-8 per cent in September.
The Boston Analytics Consumer Sentiment Index for August fell below the benchmark value of 100 since its inception, signalling a low-key festive season ahead.
Ahead of Diwali festival, the Union Cabinet on Wednesday increased the dearness allowance (DA) and dearness relief by 4 per cent effective July 1, 2022, benefiting 41.85 lakh central government employees and 69.76 lakh pensioners. The additional instalment of DA and dearness relief (DR) is an increase of 4 per cent over the existing rate of 34 per cent of basic pay/pension. The combined impact on the exchequer on account of both DA and DR would be Rs 12,852.5 crore per annum, said Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur while briefing reporters about the decisions of the Union Cabinet.
IIP, inflation numbers bring cheer, but their sustainability is the key.
The 30-share Sensex ended 209 points down at 20,282 after hitting an intra-day low of 20,262 and the 50-share Nifty ended 61 points down at 6,018 after touching an intra-day low of 6,012.
The broader markets too ended weak- BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices fell by nearly 1% each.
.jpg)
Declining prices of food items like vegetables pulled down retail inflation to 5.59 per cent in July, bringing it back within the RBI's comfort zone after two months, official data showed on Thursday. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had remained above 6 per cent during May and June. The government has mandated the RBI to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The CPI based inflation stood at 6.26 per cent in June 2021 and 6.73 per cent in July 2020.
Retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index, was at 10.36 per cent in May.
Automobile, apparel and electronics are among sectors that see a sales boost during the festival season, a time when investors expect gains in related stocks. This year could be different: Analysts have factored in all positives and do not expect such stocks to deliver lucrative returns. "Indian households spend across sectors like automobiles, consumer durables, and consumer staples during the festival season.
'Understand how wedding expenses fit into your overall financial situation.' 'Evaluate how different levels of spending will impact other goals like retirement, travel, or housing.'
In January, consumer price index-based inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month. It stood at 10.78 per cent, against 10.56 per cent in December.
The ministry of labour & employment on Friday announced a hike in variable dearness allowance for more than 1.5 crore workers in the central sphere by Rs 105 to Rs 210 per month. The hike, which will be effective from April 1, 2021, will also result in an increase in rate of minimum wages for central sphere employees and workers. It will be for scheduled employment in central sphere and applicable to the establishments under the authority of central government, Railway administration, mines, oil fields, major ports or any corporation established by the central government. These rates are equally applicable to contract and casual employees/workers.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
Consumer durables shrank year on year, which could suggest to observers that spending confidence is yet to return to the economy.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday raised its inflation projection to 5.1-4.7 per cent for the second half of the current fiscal on the back of spike in prices of vegetables such as onion and tomatoes.
Falling food prices notwithstanding, consumer inflation will remain high during the current fiscal because of high cost of housing and services as well as the increasing inflationary pressures from smaller cities, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Tuesday.
The government has revised the wages for unskilled manual workers under the national rural employment guarantee scheme by indexing it to inflation, Rural Development Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh said.
His comments poured cold water on hopes that the central bank may have a rethink on rates after the wholesale price index, the main inflation gauge, rose a lower-than-expected annual 7.25 per cent in June, its slowest rise since January, helped by moderation in fuel prices.
In case of rural workers, the index recorded an increase between 1 to 7 points in 12 States, and a decrease between one to 8 points in 8 states.
Consumer price inflation touched a nine-month high of 11.24 per cent last month.
Manufacturing activities in India touched a three-month high in March boosted by faster expansions in new orders and output amid demand resilience and easing of cost pressures, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 55.3 in February to 56.4 in March, signalling the strongest improvement in operating conditions in 2023 so far. The March PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 21st straight month.
According to data released on Thursday, Wholesale Price Index-based inflation rose to seven per cent in October from 6.46 per cent in September.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances